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Indian Stock Market Analysis

Comprehensive Market Overview & Predictions - July 2025

Last Updated: July 2, 2025 | Analysis based on latest market data

SENSEX

83,606

Positive Trend

Support
83,359 | 83,112 | 82,742

Resistance
83,977 | 84,347 | 84,594

NIFTY 50

25,517

Positive Trend

Support
25,437 | 25,357 | 25,241

Resistance
25,633 | 25,749 | 25,829

BANK NIFTY

57,313

Positive Trend

Support
57,133 | 56,953 | 56,712

Resistance
57,554 | 57,794 | 57,974

Market Sentiment Analysis

60%

Bullish Sentiment

40%

Cautious Outlook

80%

Technical Strength

📈 Technical Analysis

• NIFTY 50: Trading in positive territory with strong support at 25,080 levels
• Resistance Break: Key resistance at 25,050-25,070 range needs to be crossed for further upside
• Market Structure: Bullish structure intact with ascending pattern formation
• Volume Analysis: Good participation from domestic institutional investors

🌍 Market Drivers

• Global Factors: U.S. tariff policies and Asian market sentiment affecting trades
• Domestic Growth: India expected to grow 6.5-6.8% in FY 2024-25
• Earnings Outlook: Consensus cut NIFTY 50 growth estimates from 15% to 5%
• FII Activity: Mixed foreign institutional investor sentiment

⚠️ Risk Factors

• Global Trade: Supply chain disruptions from policy changes
• Volatility: Heightened volatility expected in coming quarters
• Valuation Concerns: Markets trading at premium valuations
• Macro Data: Key economic indicators awaited

Sector Performance Overview

Banking

+2.1%

IT Services

+1.8%

Pharma

+3.2%

Auto

-0.8%

Metals

-1.2%

FMCG

+0.9%

🔮 Market Predictions & Outlook

Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis

Short Term (1-2 weeks)

NIFTY: 25,200 - 25,800
SENSEX: 82,800 - 84,600

Medium Term (1-3 months)

Consolidation phase with selective stock picking opportunities

Long Term (6-12 months)

Bullish outlook maintained with target of NIFTY 27,000+

⚡ Intraday Trading Strategies

🎯 NIFTY Intraday Levels

Buy Above: 25,540 | Target: 25,620, 25,680
Sell Below: 25,450 | Target: 25,380, 25,320
Stop Loss: 50-60 points from entry

Strategy: Breakout trading on key pivot levels with strict risk management

🏦 BANK NIFTY Intraday

Buy Above: 57,400 | Target: 57,650, 57,850
Sell Below: 57,100 | Target: 56,850, 56,650
Stop Loss: 150-200 points from entry

Strategy: Higher volatility allows for larger profit targets but requires wider stops

📈 SENSEX Intraday Setup

Buy Above: 83,700 | Target: 84,000, 84,300
Sell Below: 83,400 | Target: 83,100, 82,800
Stop Loss: 200-250 points from entry

Strategy: Follow NIFTY momentum with proportional targets

⏰ Time-Based Strategies

9:15 AM - 10:30 AM (Opening Range)

• High volatility period - perfect for breakout trades
• Watch for gap up/down and first 15-minute candle direction
• Use smaller position sizes due to higher risk

10:30 AM - 2:30 PM (Mid-Session)

• Range-bound trading - use support/resistance levels
• Best time for scalping strategies
• Lower volatility allows for tighter stops

2:30 PM - 3:30 PM (Closing Hour)

• Momentum trades based on daily trend
• Institutional activity increases volume
• Exit all positions by 3:20 PM

🔍 Technical Indicators for Intraday

Primary Indicators

• EMA 9 & 21: Trend direction and crossover signals
• RSI (14): Overbought (>70) / Oversold (<30 li="">
• MACD: Momentum confirmation

Volume Indicators

• Volume Profile: Identify high volume nodes
• VWAP: Institutional price benchmark
• OI Changes: For F&O positions

Entry Confirmation

• Wait for 2-3 indicator alignment
• Volume surge on breakout
• Price action confirmation

⚠️ Intraday Risk Management

💰 Position Sizing

• Risk max 1-2% of capital per trade
• NIFTY: 1-2 lots for beginners
• Adjust size based on volatility

🛑 Stop Loss Rules

• Always set SL before entering
• Never move SL against you
• Trail profits with partial booking

📊 Trade Management

• Book 50% at 1:1 risk-reward
• Trail remaining with cost SL
• Max 3-4 trades per day

🎯 Profit Targets

• Minimum 1:2 risk-reward ratio
• Book partial profits at resistance
• Don't be greedy - secure profits

💡 Investment Strategy

For Long Positions:

• Hold positions with stop-loss at NIFTY 25,338
• Fresh buying on dips to support levels
• Focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals

For Short Positions:

• Consider shorts below key support levels
• Wait for technical breakdown confirmation

📊 Key Levels to Watch

NIFTY 50 Crucial Levels:

• Immediate Support: 25,080, 24,950
• Strong Support: 24,500
• Immediate Resistance: 25,680, 25,780
• Major Resistance: 25,980

🎯 Top Intraday Stock Picks

Banking Sector

HDFC Bank: Buy above ₹1,680 | Target: ₹1,720, ₹1,750 | SL: ₹1,650
ICICI Bank: Buy above ₹1,240 | Target: ₹1,270, ₹1,290 | SL: ₹1,220
Axis Bank: Buy above ₹1,150 | Target: ₹1,180, ₹1,200 | SL: ₹1,130

IT Sector

TCS: Buy above ₹4,180 | Target: ₹4,230, ₹4,280 | SL: ₹4,140
Infosys: Buy above ₹1,920 | Target: ₹1,960, ₹1,990 | SL: ₹1,890
HCL Tech: Buy above ₹1,680 | Target: ₹1,720, ₹1,750 | SL: ₹1,650

Auto Sector

Maruti Suzuki: Buy above ₹12,800 | Target: ₹13,000, ₹13,200 | SL: ₹12,600
Tata Motors: Buy above ₹1,080 | Target: ₹1,120, ₹1,150 | SL: ₹1,050
M&M: Buy above ₹2,980 | Target: ₹3,050, ₹3,120 | SL: ₹2,920

🚀 Advanced Intraday Strategies

1. Gap Trading Strategy

• Gap Up (>0.5%): Wait for pullback to 50% gap fill, then buy
• Gap Down (>0.5%): Short on bounce to 50% gap fill level
• Risk: Gap closure beyond 80% - exit immediately

2. VWAP Strategy

• Buy when price bounces from VWAP with volume
• Sell when price fails at VWAP resistance
• Strong trend when price stays above/below VWAP

3. Momentum Scalping

• Enter on 5-min breakout with increasing volume
• Exit at first sign of momentum weakness
• Quick 10-20 point profits, 5-10 point stops

📈 Options Intraday Strategies

1. ATM Straddle/Strangle

• Best during high volatility events
• Sell when volatility drops post-event
• Manage Greeks - avoid high Theta decay

2. Directional Option Buying

• Buy ITM/ATM options on strong breakouts
• Target 30-50% profits quickly
• Avoid holding overnight - time decay risk

3. Iron Condor (Range-bound)

• Sell when expecting sideways movement
• Profit from time decay
• Exit at 25-50% max profit

Market Trend Visualization

Trend showing gradual upward movement with consolidation phases

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and platform are not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this analysis.